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A boy died and saw what heaven was like. Doctors managed to revive his body, so he was pulled back to earth to live many more years. His friends and family were all eager to hear what heaven was like. With joy and excitement in his eyes, he happily told them what he saw: “The pears were on fire! Everything smelled of green and nectar, and the food was in the sky.” But his smile faded when he realized that people only understood gibberish from what he was saying. The words he choose could not have been any better, but those who had not shared his experience could not comprehend what he said.
I just now got back from work, as I’ve been working on finishing up a term paper that’s due tomorrow. Being that it is a term paper, you might think that I should have spent time during the term writing it. But to be honest, I woudn’t even say that I procrastinated this paper. Procrastination is when you think about doing something but then put it off. In my case, I had planned to do this paper on the last two days of the semester. Why? Well, working under this kind of a deadline builds certain skills that can be used in all facets of life. Anyone can write a good term paper over the course of the term. But it takes real skill to wait until the last possible moment, pound something out, and end up with a product that’s almost as good. In order to become a master, follow this simple set of coupled optimizations:
1) Minimize the amount of time between when you start the project and the due date.
2) Maximize the quality of your work.
At first, these goals might seem at odds, but with enough practice you’ll be able to start and finish a project in a day, with little regard to the project magnitude. Criteria #1 is slightly more important than #2; however, there is one additional rule that must be followed at all costs: the quality of your work should never look like you started it the night before. This is the key to success. This is what distinguishes a master from an amateur procrastinator.
The Drake Equation, developed by Frank Drake and Carl Sagan, is a probabilistic method for estimating the number of communicative civilizations in the galaxy. It’s difficult when we only have one data point to work with, but here’s my [current] set of parameters for the equation, with explanations:
The Drake Equation: N = R * Fp * Ne * Fl * Fi * Fc * L
R = rate of formation of stars in the galaxy = 10 stars/year [~1011 stars in the galaxy / ~1010 years (for the age of the Milky Way)]
Fp = fraction of those stars with planets = 35% [about half of star systems are binaries, although even some of these may have planets; but not all single-star systems have planets either]
Ne = number of “Earths” per planetary system = 0.5 [many planetary systems consist of "hot Jupiters"; current detection methods are skewed toward these type of systems, so it is perhaps reasonable to assume that half of the systems have an "Earth"]
Fl = fraction of these planets where life develops = 80% [once the conditions for life are present, it may be the case that life will develop in some form]
Fi = fraction of these planets with intelligent life = 5% [is intelligence an automatic consequence of evolution, or is life common but intelligence perhaps less so?]
Fc = fraction of these planets where communicative technology develops = 50% [once intelligence is achieved, it seems likely that technology will eventually follow]
L = lifetime of communicating civilizations = 200 years [okay, so I'm a bit pessimistic; but I doubt the ability of humanity to progress 200 years past the radio era]
With these parameters, I get an estimate of the number of communicative civilizations in the Milky Way to be N = 7.
Last time I did this, I got N = 2, so perhaps the results of planet searches have increased my outlook. In any case, I certainly hope there’s more than 7 in the galaxy. And maybe humans are simply a poor example of a technologically advanced civilization, and L for the universe is really more on the order of a thousand years or so.
There are approximately 240 M dwarf stars within 10 parsecs of Earth. M dwarfs (small, cool, dim stars) are thought to make up about 75% of the stars in the universe, although they are too faint to be detectable by the naked eye. The expected lifetime of an M dwarf is >100 billion years–much longer than the current age of the universe, so there have probably been very few M star deaths thus far.
Given the age and number of M stars, if life exists elsewhere in the universe then the life around M stars might have a significant evolutionary advantage to us Earthlings. We only got in the game a little over 4 billion years ago (when the Sun formed), but these guys could have had up to 13 billion years of development! Assuming that they didn’t blow themselves to bits in some massive civil war, there could very well be a highly advanced M star civilization out there, simply given the amount of time they could have had. Of course, self-destruction of an “intelligent” civilization is a separate matter of speculation. Maybe tomorrow I’ll go through the Drake Equation for fun. But I still like to think that somewhere out there is an M star system teeming with life.
0. Everything is determined by dice rolls. You almost never get to re-roll.
1. God does in fact play dice and often does roll out of view.
2. Most characters say they have a deity, but it’s only apparent when they’re about to die.
3. Paladins are annoying. Sometimes, it really is okay not to help the old lady cross the street.
4. You can dance if you want to (but it only looks good if you have ranks in dance).
5. If you tell people you are “chaotic neutral”, then you can get away with almost anything.
6. Sometimes you have to go out of your way to look for trouble.
7. Every now and then, it’s okay to do something just to show off.
8. It doesn’t matter how pretty you look; everyone tastes good to zombies.
9. When you and a halfling are fleeing from a dragon, you don’t have to outrun the dragon. (You just have to outrun the hafling.)
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