Growing Disaster

Although several years old, this paper by Changnon et al. (2000) makes an excellent observation regarding our perception of the increasing severity of natural disasters. Over the past fifty years the total cost of damages due to weather related events rose from ~$100 million to ten times as much, but the cost per person has remained constant:

…the results collectively indicate that the major cause of trends in losses related to weather and climate extremes is societal factors: the growth of wealth with more valuable property at risk, increasing density of property, and demographic shifts to coastal areas and storm-prone areas that are experiencing increasing urbanization.

Our pattern of continuous growth creates the opportunity for more damaging storms as we settle into high risk regions and construct expensive structures. Perhaps the many prophets of doom throughout history simply realized the long-term consequences of unsustainable growth and therefore included meteorological catastrophe as inevitable from our lifestyle.

And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars; see that you are not alarmed; for this must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places: all this is but the beginning of the birth pangs. (Matthew 24:6-8)

A great and rich power will be subject to serious natural disasters, particularly earthquakes and flooding, and rend the nation from end to end, causing enormous conflict, despair, and misery. The wealthy power will be bankrupted attempting to deal with its disasters. (Nostradamus, Times of Trouble)

Various prophets have had different ideas of the things to come, but they all saw in our world a sign of the times.